Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation are now leading consultations between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major suppliers about the future of their agreement to cut oil output, Barkindo said Sunday in New Delhi.
Rising supply from the USA and from other producers outside of the deal, as well as recovery of production in exempt OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, have been offsetting much of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts.
Still, OPEC is not banking on a surge in prices, saying in the report crude is expected to remain at $50 (37.91 pounds) to $55 a barrel in the next year.
OPEC said the world would need 33.06 million barrels per day (bpd) of its crude next year, up 230,000 bpd from its previous forecast.
Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management said OPEC and oil bulls were "hoping U.S. producers slow down production and make further progress on inventory cuts". Of that 170-MMbbl surplus, 145 million were crude and 25 million were oil products.
Opec said it pumped 32.75 million bpd in September, up about 89,000 bpd from August.
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Should OPEC keep pumping at September's level, the market could move into a deficit next year, the report indicates. "Between the first half and second half this year, demand growth is nearly about 2 million barrels (per day), which is very robust", he said.
Increasing demand for oil will be matched by added supplies, but Opec's forecasts for the balance of supply and demand foresee a greater reliance on the cartel's output.
Let's take a closer look at five oil-related stocks that you may want to consider ahead of next month's OPEC meeting. "A rise above that level would encourage USA oil producers to expand their drilling activities, otherwise the lower prices could lead to a reduction in their capex".
OPEC's reluctance to cut output was also seen as a key reason behind the fall. From a technical standpoint, USA crude has staged an impressive rebound from the $49.08 level and a decisive breakout above $51 should encourage a further incline towards $52.40 a barrel, said Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM.
A sharp increase in oil prices would tend to discourage consumption and thus growth.