"The market is reacting to news that global trade war tensions are easing and geopolitical risks are escalating, but that doesn't mean concerns have diminished over rising USA output and supplies", Will Yun, a commodities analyst at Hyundai Futures Corp., said by phone from Seoul.
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $65.51 a barrel early on Monday, down 37 cents, or 0.6%, from their previous close. In a note, Barclays Research analysts said they also expected the supply deficit of the past few months to give way to a surplus due to rising USA output.
This comes on the heels of the industry in 2016 finding the fewest barrels in 70 years; the IEA believes that while oil market will remain well supplied through at least 2020; after that, the market might struggle to meet growing demand.
Until that changes, Brent and WTI will continue to rule this roost.
Trading hours will be 9 a.m. -11:30 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. -3 p.m. local time and, at night, 9 p.m. -2:30 a.m. The daily average is about 285,000 for March. The front-month Brent contract had settled Friday above $70 a barrel for the first time since late January.
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It wasn't a febrile start to trading, which may be exactly what the Chinese authorities intended. The upward and downward trading limits were set at 5 percent, with the trading limits on the first trading day set at 10 percent of the benchmark prices. Shady Shaher, head of macro strategy at Dubai-based lender Emirates NBD PJSC, says it makes sense in the long run to look at transactions in yuan because China is a key market, but it will take years. To attract greater trade participation, Beijing plans to exempt foreign traders and organizations from income tax. As of March 21, a total of 19 overseas brokers have registered with the Shanghai exchange for dealing the oil futures contract. "But for it to become a global benchmark - we are a way away from that". "[The new futures market would help enhance our] risk management ability against global oil price volatility", said Dai Houliang, vice chairman and president of Sinopec in Hong Kong Monday.
And the yuan denomination adds another layer of risk for investors concerned about potential capital controls by Beijing and intervention in the currency market, according to BMI.
Similar obstacles have kept foreign investors as bit players in the nation's giant stock and bond markets.
Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie said in a note that the impact of Shanghai crude futures on global crude prices will be marginal if there is not enough liquidity.
While he's not particularly watching it closely for the moment, ANZ's Chinese desk is very focused on it, he said.